My Thoughts on Trey Lance and the Forty-Niners

One of the more controversial moves by Shanalynch was the big trade up from their 12th draft pick overall position to the 3rd pick overall, giving up a bundle of future picks, including two first round picks, and then picking Trey Lance. Many were upset about the picks traded, viewing that as too much draft capital being giving up. Others did not care for Lance as much as they did for Justin Fields.

I wanted to share my thoughts and research.

It Was a Great Move to Draft Trey Lance

Overall, I thought it was a good move. A risky move, a move that might crush the Shanalynch regime, but it could also make their era transcendent, as well. I think that overall, it was a great risk mitigating move on their part but that there is some good chance it fails.

First off, I'll note that I don't know football as well as any of the expert fans out there. I just read a lot and process a lot of information. Based on that information, Lance seems like a really good prospect too, just different from Fields.

Fields has the pedigree that Lance didn't, being basically the #1 QB prospect coming out of HS, and, really, the #2 QB going into last season, behind Lawrence, until Wilson flew above him with a great season, with the caveat that Wilson was pedestrian before the season. By some advanced metrics, Fields was one of the most, if not the most, accurate QB among the Top Five of Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, and Jones. He also started the most games and seasons, as well as faced the biggest pressures, playing against top national teams, and in big games. And, like Lance, he could run with the ball when necessary. His major negative came out near the draft, that he had epilepsy as a child, though he likely grew out of it.  He was a highly sought after QB talent and I think the epilepsy news timing hurt his draft position, should have released this much earlier, teams don't like last minute surprises, especially about health.

Lance, on the other hand,  was so unwanted that he ended up at an FCS school instead, out of high school. The major schools wanted him, because he's so athletic, for other positions. He only had that one full season played as QB (albeit, amazingly great), and only played (and poorly), in the one game last season, because his team decided to play in the spring instead, and he wanted to prepare for the draft. 

However, out of the Top 5 QB's, he probably played the most pro-style plays because his school used pro-style concepts. In fact, whether it was related to his abilities to run or not, their offense had a lot of running plays, much like how Shanahan likes to write them up, the Niners have been a run dominant offense. And while he played against lesser talents, he absolutely dominated in his one full season, and ended up not throwing one interception that season (though reports were that some wobblers could have been intercepted).  And in the season before, he got some random plays at the end of games in his freshman year, where the other teams expected him to run, and he still ran and got big yardage gains.

In addition, he was coached by his father early on, who was a pro football player (though not NFL pro). He was taught how to watch film and learn from it from an early age, something other QB's don't do at a young age. Plus his father was a defensive player, so he taught his son how to recognize professional defensive coverages. On top of all that, his father taught him to be analytical, so he has spreadsheets helping him with an analytical approach to football (great SI article on Lance).

Which makes him an ideal QB prospect. He is a gym rat, always working at his craft, training and learning. He was very coachable because he was very one-minded, he wanted to be a QB. And, he's very analytical, using spreadsheets, and he had a 3.9 GPA, so his brains are pretty good too. Plus, as noted above, he was watching film even before college, and learned pro concepts as well, from his father.  At his school, they also had him cutting his own film, which is unusual for college programs, even Division 1. His school also encouraged the players to teach each other offense, as well.  

On top of that, North Dakota was one of the rare schools where the QB was expected to do pro-style quarterback progressions and duties. He had to make split second protection decisions at the line of scrimmage, reading the defense, and barking out instructions to his teammates. In addition, once the ball is hiked to him (and most snaps were behind the center), he had to make multiple progression reads of his receivers. Observers of his game films did not apparently see that, as I never saw that mentioned at all in draft analyses, but interviews revealed this nuance, another skill he practiced while playing for his college, something other QB's did not have to or get to do. 

And while he did not have pedigree coming into college, he achieved a lot in his first and only full season as starting QB. Per the SI article, Lance was the first FCS-level player to win the Walter Payton Award—the FCS version of the Heisman—and the Jerry Rice Award, given to the top freshman, in the same year.  Prior Walter Payton Award winners included Jimmy Garoppolo, Tony Romo, and Adrian Pederson, but on the other hand, most of the winners were nobodies in the NFL, same with the Jerry Rice award, so there is that caveat.

As his private quarterback coach, Avery, noted (see the above interview), he already understood protections, drop backs and coverages that counterparts from spread systems often don’t learn in college.  More from that article:

Avery has come to believe Lance has the strongest arm of any quarterback he has trained, pros included. He also sees Lance as the “most natural” runner for a quarterback in this draft, prompting the Josh Allen comparisons. Like Allen, Lance combines a rare skill set with untapped potential; sometimes, Avery marveled at how Lance, in one day, could apply tweaks that took others weeks to master. He sees Lance less as a project and more as NFL-ready—“the most in his class”—right from the start.

So, overall, I would say that although he did not throw as many passes as his competitors did, his team played more often the way an NFL QB would play than the other college QBs.  He didn't throw as many passes, but part of that was because his team ran more running plays, similar to the Niners. And when he did pass, he passed very well, in his one full season, producing a lot of offense and ended up with no interceptions (in spite of the analysis that said that he was not as accurate as the other college QBs). And he ran more pro-style concept plays than the other QB's, like play action. He also was doing progression reads.  Furthermore, he's a sponge who can implement new concepts quickly, and analyzes with spreadsheets, on top of all of his physical gifts. And his coach thought he was more NFL-ready than another other QB in this class. 

Of course, who knows, but he seems to have a lot of great ingredients for becoming a good to great NFL QB, both passing and rushing, as well as being as prepared, if not more prepared, than the other prospects. Justin Fields probably would have been a great choice as well, but there was something that drew Shanahan to Lance. Even after spending a day watching Field's Pro Day, on his flight back, he was thinking about what he can do offensively with Lance. At some point, you need to trust your offensive genius' gut as to which player is better for his style of offense, maybe Fields is a better QB prospect overall, to play devil's advocate, but there was something that drew Kyle to focus on Lance, which matches up with what he wants to do with the Niners offense.

Keeping Garoppolo Was Ideal Move Too

Meanwhile, the Niners still have Jimmy G as the starting QB. This has many risk mitigating benefits. First of all, it allows Lance to learn at his own pace and not be forced into situations that could delay his development, such as injuries, loss of confidence, and other problems that afflict young QB prospects. He can learn at his pace (though he seems to be one of those who want to learn it all as fast as he can). 

In addition, Garappolo has decided to take the challenge of teaching his successor, while also competing hard to keep his job away from Lance, much like how Tom Brady taught Jimmy the ropes when he came in as the heir apparent, and ended up keeping the job. This will help Lance develop faster, getting some tips that helped Jimmy become a professional QB. It also doesn't poison the clubhouse atmosphere, forcing players to take sides, which can cause a team to spiral downward.

Furthermore, it gives the Niners a great floor of starting QB talent. Garappolo will continue to run the Niner's offense well, given health. Lance will learn in the background and absorb that information.  At some point, Lance is expected to reach and surpass Garappolo, at which point, he'll take over, keeping the Niners going until Lance can take over the reins.

Which is very important, as it allows the Niners to continue to battle strongly for the Super Bowl while also developing Lance. The Niners are set up to compete for the Super Bowl each year. They have a relatively young team, which should help keep the team competitive for the next few years, if they can stay healthy (Bosa going out hurt greatly as well). Garoppolo would presumably man the position well - he did lead them to the Super Bowl and the team has won 73% of his starts - and keep the team competitive while Lance develops.

Furthermore, it gives the Niners a super talented backup QB in Lance who could step in if Jimmy gets injured, instead of backups who struggle, and keep a winning season going (Niners are 22-8 when Garoppolo is starting and healthy; unfortunately, he has missed 23 game over the past 3 seasons, so health is a big stated reason Shanalynch gave for why this move was made). Thus, any Jimmy G injury won't necessarily be a season ending killer. And would give Lance game time experience. 

Niners win if Jimmy stays healthy, but also benefits and stay competitive, if he is out injured again. Plus, based on the information on Lance, of how advanced he is relative to other QB prospects, he might not need a lot of time to become a competent enough NFL QB to run the Niners offense fairly quickly, presumably similar to how Jimmy G was forced into the starting role early after he was traded for, due to QB injury, operating with a limited set of plays but was successful from the get-go.

Ideally, if Lance takes over before Garappolo's contract is over, and Jimmy is still healthy, the Niners could trade Garoppolo, and recoup some of their draft capital expended to draft Trey Lance. Much is made about how the Niners traded two first round picks (plus the free third round pick) in order to move up nine spots in the draft. But if they can trade him for a first round pick after the next season, that would lessen the cost of acquiring Lance by a significant amount (although, it should be noted that it did take a second round pick to get Jimmy from the Patriots).

Another unstated reason I've yet to see for setting up for a successor is that while Garoppolo has not played that many pro football games in his career, he will be 30 YO in the coming season.  Football is a very physical sport, and while some QB's play into their late 30's, a football player in his 30's is facing the inevitable decline that comes in their 30's. The Niners are contracted for his 30th and 31st YO seasons, do they want to solely rely on a 32 YO QB who has a history of missing significant portions of seasons due to injury when younger? Especially when the roster is set up to be competitive beyond the next two seasons? Getting Lance now prepares for the probability that by his 32nd YO season, Garappolo will be entering the tail end of his career, perhaps starting his decline.

Most of all, not often said, but the history of QB's drafted in the first round is littered with many failures, and by keeping Jimmy G around, they still have a good QB running the offense. Lance would get up to two seasons to prove to Niners management that he's ready to take over for Garoppolo, and perhaps reach higher heights. If he should flame out for any reason, or need more time developing, the Niners could slap the franchise tag on Garoppolo and keep him indefinitely, as they work on Lance. He could stay on if he remains good enough to keep Lance at bay.  This mitigates a lot of risk involving the QB position for the next couple of years and hopefully beyond.

Overall, Great Move

By having both Garappolo and Lance on the roster, the Niners get to keep their current renaissance continuing, which only started a few seasons ago, and set it up to try to reach higher heights if they can develop Lance's abundant potential, both passing and running.  He's the ideal prospect, from physical attributes to mental attributes, from having learned many pro concepts and practices early on and while in college to being able to master new concepts quickly. The only thing missing is the performance at the highest stage, which would convince many of his great attributes, but then the Niners likely would not have been able to draft him, the Dolphins could have kept the pick, heck, the Jets could have selected him.  It is a huge risk, and yet, given all this information, seems like one of the least riskiest draftee.

It's a win/win situation, with a lot to like about Lance and about having two good QB's on the roster while the roster is capable of getting to and winning the Super Bowl. Lance is a fascinating QB prospect, with a number of qualities that are unique to him - making the risk of drafting and developing him as QB seem like the least riskiest among the choices available after Trevor Lawrence. It will be exciting to see how this all turns out, it could blow up, as many highly touted QBs have in the past, and yet, given the above, it seems like he's ready to take on the NFL once he learns Shanahan's intricate offensive system.  I can't wait.