My Thoughts on Wiseman and the future of the Warriors

I admit no strong knowledge of basketball, but as a fan, I have opinions on the Warriors and the question of James Wiseman. As usual, I'm driven by the writing of a newspaper columnist, whose take is that the Warriors should not waste a prime season of Steph Curry by drafting a project like James Wiseman, and should have selected someone like Tyrese Haliburton, who has been extremely valuable, even better than the whipping horse example of LaMelo Ball.

First of all, that's the lazy writing of sports writers to point out a draft pick that's way out of the lottery picks, who suddenly is a very good NBA player. If it were that easy to identify such a player, most teams would have selected him sooner. It would be saying years later that teams should have drafted Draymond Green earlier: duh! Just lazy analysis, and a false premise because nobody knew Haliburton would be that good from the start, and if it was that obvious, one of the 11 teams ahead of Sacramento would have drafted him.  Had the writer said that the Warriors should have selected Haliburton over Wiseman, then I would cut some slack, but I doubt it since he would have pointed that out in the column he wrote. 

On top of that, the same columnist now thinks that it is impossible to think of a way to fix the Warriors, not that long after he opined that the Warriors owe it to Curry to capitalize on this career MVP level type season.  So basically, the sum of his advice is that the Warriors should trade anyone and everything to improve the team for Curry, blowing away trade assets that could help in the future, but that there is no solution that he sees for making the team good enough to win it all.

Blowing Up Assets

Which is my problem with these stances, the main thing that most commenters don't seem to either realize or understand, is that the Warriors would be wasting team assets trying to acquire someone who helps Curry go deeper into the playoffs this season. They feel that it would be a waste of Curry's prime to not sell off Wiseman and their T-Wolves pick (plus other players and assets) in order to acquire a superstar of some sort. However, that would hurt their chances of winning with Curry, Green and Thompson in the next 3-5 seasons, because you always have to overpay to get such a great player now versus later.  So they could be wasting more of Curry's prime just to take their one shot this season and boosting chances in future seasons, potentially.

On top of that, the Warriors get to keep their pick for 2021 draft, which is considered a deep draft, if they are the 11th best team or worse during this season. So the price of acquiring a superstar player today goes up even higher, as the Warriors are already borderline for losing their pick, around 13-14th best (obviously, they bounce around a lot). Improving themselves this season to capitalize on Curry's talents would result in a much better record. So, not only do they lose a pick, it is in one of the deepest drafts, where a better (or top) prospect could theoretically fall to them, giving them a better trade asset, if they didn't trade for a better player.

Furthermore, these people want to push Curry into a playoffs where they are hoping to get lucky and win it all because there are no juggernaut team in their way.  So, the consequences of that is that Curry and Green are given less rest (as the whole point of trading for the superstar is to go deeper, in hopes of winning it aall), and most likely (because even these people acknowledge that it's a crapshoot that they even win), it will be all for nothing, with these older players getting worn out playing deeper into the playoffs, and yet not winning it all.  These people are missing the overall picture that making the playoffs this season is not the be all and end all.

Making Big Moves, Just to Make Big Moves, Is Wasted Motion

Ultimately, these people are willing to trade off future assets like Wiseman and the Twolves pick, only to not win this season, anyway.  Now, this could help them win in future seasons, but their main point is winning this season because of how great Curry is playing.  And they also discount how Wiseman can contribute to the team, by noting that young prospects like Wiseman and the Twolves pick probably won't reach their peak until they are 25 years old, or 6 seasons from now.

On top of that, these people didn't realize that this season was pretty much toast, in terms of being championship quality, the moment Klay Thompson went down with his injury. Trying to win, just to take advantage of Currry's great playing, would be throwing away good asset values just to boost this season's chances (and, no, there is almost zero chance that the Warriors can obtain someone like Thompson without breaking up not only the roster, but also killing value for future seasons when Thompson presumably returns to playing form and performing like old (or as close to old as he could)).

Wiseman is Pretty Talented, Just Very Raw and Inexperienced

Most of all to me, these people don't seem to understand how good Wiseman could be. He's basically a high school player learning to play in the NBA, and he's constantly compared with players like Ball, who has been prepared his whole life to be in the NBA, plus played a season in a professional league last season. I would hope he's outplaying Wiseman. Or Hailliburton, who played two full seasons of college basketball, playing in the Big 12 Conference.  

Wiseman is so far behind in experience and yet he's doing so well in his limited playing time (those two have already carved out significant minutes), with a lot of highlight reel plays and moves. Here is how they compare, most times analysts look only at their nominal per game totals, but the below compares if they were playing full time (total minutes per game, percentages, then 36-minute averages, which is their total if they were being played as many minutes as a starter):

• Halliburton: 30.1 MPG; 49.4% FG%; 43.3% 3P%; 4.3 Rebounds; 6.4 Assists; 1.7 steals; 0.7 blocks; 15.8 points
• Ball:  28.9 MPG; 44.9% FG%; 37.8% 3P%; 7.5 Rebounds; 7.9 Assists; 2.0 steals; 0.5 blocks; 19.7 points
• Wiseman:  20.8 MPG; 51.0% FG%; 37.0% 3P%; 10.2 Rebounds; 1.1 Assists; 0.6 steals; 1.9 blocks; 20.4 points

Obviously, his role differs from these guards, but for a big man role, he's scoring a lot of points, getting a lot of rebounds, averaging double double, which would be great big man stats.  Plus getting a lot of blocks: he's 50th in the NBA, but have roughly half the minutes of the players ahead of him. Doubling his 28 gets us to 56, which is basically 7th in the NBA in total blocks (6th has 59; next has 53).  His 36-minute rebounding puts him 30th in the NBA, and one of about 40 players who are producing at a double-double rate in point-rebounds.  And he's just a very raw rookie, learning with each game he plays.

Nuance in 36-minute increments

Now, part of that is with ample amounts of salt for Wiseman, because not all those numbers will linearly align with more minutes, because generally, players, especially rookies playing limited minutes, are playing lesser players, and when their minutes expand, they start facing the starting players.

But that's the thing, he was the starter, so he was facing the top players a majority of his time on the court, he started 16 of his first 27 games, and wasn't too bad there (these are raw numbers), in first half of season, before All-Star break:

• First 16: 21.4 MPG; 50.3% FG%; 33.3% 3P%; 6.1 Rebounds; 0.7 Assists; 0.4 steals; 1.4 blocks; 11.8 points
• Overall: 20.8 MPG; 51.0% FG%; 37.0% 3P%; 5.9 Rebounds; 0.7 Assists; 0.3 steals; 1.1 blocks; 11.8 points
• Last 11: 19.1 MPG; 54.5% FG%; 50.0% 3P%; 5.8 Rebounds; 0.5 Assists; 0.2 steals; 0.5 blocks; 11.9 points 

So he performed better coming off the bench, producing more given that he was playing 10% less minutes, except for blocks.  But his stats were not that bad playing mostly against starters, as he is roughly still a double-double center (points and rebounds), with a lot of blocks.  

Also, something interesting is that blocks are greatly affected when he is in, both blocks made by the Warriors and blocks by their opponents, with Wiseman in, the team has more blocks while less of their shots are blocked.  So he's clearly affecting both offense and defense with his height and length.

Another interesting thing is his Game Score.  He has averaged 7.9 per game. 9 of his 27 games are in double digits.  Looney in 28 games, has averaged 4.8 and has only 3 double digits.  Wiggins has mostly had double digits, averaging 11.4 per game.  But he had 32.1 MPG vs. Wiseman's 20.8 MPG.  If Wiseman was bumped to 32.1 MPG and produced at the same rate, his Game Score would be 12.2 per game, a bit higher, but roughly the same, given the probable variability of Wiseman's performance.  Similarly with Oubre Jr, he has 30.4 MPG and 11.0 Game Score per game, basically the same as Wiggins.  And Green's is at 8.6 GS for 29.5 MPG.  

Raw but Already Good

So he has looked good in spurts, with highlight reel moves, like those coast to coast moves he and really raw in other situations. But looking at his Game Score stats, even though he only had 3 college games to his credit entering the season, he's been producing at a similar rate as two NBA veterans in Wiggins and Oubre Jr. and better than Green. So Wiseman, in spite of being very raw and inexperienced, is producing per Game Score, at a level that two established experienced pros are.  Just imagine when he IS experienced! Of course, Game Score has its limitations.

But still, the point is that Wiseman, by some metrics are doing as well or better than his fellow rookies and even NBA vets, even though these 27 games are all learning situations for him, where he's hesitant to make certain moves because it is not muscle memory for him yet.  The game has been too fast for him, but in spite of that, his natural skills and abilities enable him to play well enough to be compared favorably with top rookies and veterans who have a ton more experience playing beyond high school basketball.  

So maybe Ball is a better player now, and eventually is a better player, but the more important question is will he be so much better than what Wiseman can bring as a big man in the Curry-led offensive scheme?  

Future Value

And to me, that's more important, what the future might bring. The talk has been about how Curry has changed the NBA, making big men less of a focal point, but the pendulum has swung back and big men still have skills and strengths advantages that you can't teach, and Wiseman has those skills and strengths.  On top of that, he fits the Warriors strengths, much like how Wiggins fit but Russell didn't.  So the key, really, has been this: can Wiseman learn to be an effective big man in the NBA?

And that requires the patience and will to learn to be an effective big man.  Is he coachable?  Does he want to be a great player? There have been many a big man who has the skills and abilities but those were the only reasons driving him to play basketball. He didn't want to play basketball, but played because he had the abilities to be good at it. 

From the articles I've read on The Athletic, Wiseman is indeed a wise man.  He is a mature young man, hardened by the difficulties of his life circumstances so far, and eager to become as good a player as he can be.  He might not have played much college ball or professional ball, but he spent his coronavirus off time working with professionals helping him sculpt his body and to train him for professional basketball. You don't do that if you are just coasting on the abilities that nature gave you. 

So the way I view him is multi-layered. As I noted above, he's actually producing well at the NBA level, period, on a 36-minute rate, he's already in the Top 50 or better, as a rookie playing mostly on instinct and latent talent.  Whereas in Ball's case, he's been prepared for this moment since he was in elementary school (perhaps kindergarten), and he also played professionally in Australia (and not very well) and has that experience under his belt.  Not that Ball can't get better (see Curry), but Wiseman is already comparable to Ball, and yet is significantly inexperienced relative to Ball, so he appears to have a much higher ceiling, due to that and his talents related to his physical stature.  

And he has exhibited the will and desire to become better. He said, after the draft, that he was hoping that the Warriors would draft him, as he admired them and wanted to learn their system. He has not been cowed by being in the presence of the greatness of Curry, unlike other players who suddenly can't shoot or pass like they did in their career previously.  

All this gives him a ceiling unlike any of the other prospects the Warriors could have drafted, because he has the raw physical talents that already gives him an advantage over seasoned NBA veterans, allowing him to play well already, and at the same time, he has so much that he can learn from the Warriors about playing in the NBA, on top of learning how to play in the Warriors system. Just as importantly, he represents a different, missing component, from the Warriors current roster, a true big man center with physical attributes that cannot be taught, who can fit in with Curry, Thompson, Green, and, for now, Wiggins.

The Education of Wiseman

Thus, I want the Warriors to focus on the education of James Wiseman this season, and not blow out all their top trade assets just to win this season. The rumors is that the Warriors would only do that for a generational type player, so I don't expect him to be traded anytime this season. I would rather they focus on getting Wiseman ready for next season, and if he elevates his play high enough that the Warriors make the playoffs, and even lose their draft pick, I'm okay with that, because it means that Wiseman had made significant progress towards being a good starting center for an NBA team.  

As much as I would love to see the Warriors in the playoffs and see how deep they can go, the more important thing (for the long term health of their playoff chances) is seeing Wiseman progress, and that will only happen if he's playing a lot (and most metrics so far shows that the Warriors are a much worse team when he's playing) and learning. The sooner he learns, the sooner they can capitalize on Curry's (and Green's and Klay's) greatness.  

If the Warriors, who have been borderline playoffs so far this season while holding back on playing a lot of Wiseman, make the playoffs with him playing a lot, that means that the team earned their way into the playoffs, and likely, at that point, be a much better team than their record and playoff seed would indicate, and thus could surprise (like they did beating Utah easily).  They need to live or die, both playoffs and draft pick, based on how they do with Wiseman being in there, because they need him to be good to progress next season, and if he's not ready this season, then they need the draft pick to pick up additional talent. That is the best way to proceed.

But given how well he has played while inexperienced, I don't see how the Warriors don't end up with a better record in the second half, and since they are borderline playoffs now, that should mean that they are in a better seed position by the end of the season.  So I expect them to make the playoffs, and I am hoping that they can thread the needle between making the playoffs, while retaining their draft pick for this season, so that we can see how well they can do (plus give the young players playoff experience and get those butterflies out of the way), while getting a nice prospect to train next season, which should be better than usual since this is reported to be a deeper draft than usual.